Man, the polling universe has gone crazy.
Starting with IBD/TIPP, they now have Democrats only up by 2% in the generic ballot (FiveThirtyEight.com assessment makes it actually 3%). It’s a small sample size of less than 1000. I don’t have the crosstabs, but the timing is very suspicious. This follows the Marist poll which has Democrats lead shrinking to 6 for the same ballot poll. The sample size for that one is just over 1200.
Meanwhile, a poll released in the Missouri Senate race by a Republican PAC supporting Josh Hawley versus Democrat Claire McCaskill has him leading in double digits.
The Republicans are shouting to the rafters, “Kavanaugh to the rescue!!!” This is their latest meme.
Other polls around that same time have the generic ballot in favor of the Democrats by much bigger margins.
Also, meanwhile, the numbers on Kavanaugh are just north of suck. In another NPR poll, people believe Dr. Ford over Kavanaugh by double digits-45% to 33%.
In choosing who is telling the truth, 45 percent said Ford is, up from 32 percent ahead of her Sept. 27 testimony. A third (33 percent) said Kavanaugh is the one telling the truth, up slightly from 26 percent before he testified but not as much of a rise as for Ford.
The difference was people who were unsure. Independents maybe?
None of this makes any sense. Women seem to be tremendously pissed about Kavanaugh...
New polling released Monday showed how the confrontation over Ford's allegations could reinforce these dynamics. A national Quinnipiac University survey found that 61% of college-educated white women said they believed Ford over Kavanaugh; 58% of such well-educated women said the Senate should reject his nomination, according to detailed results provided by Quinnipiac.
”Educated white women were already recoiling from Trump. Then came Kavanaugh.” by Ron Brownstein, CNN.com 10/2/2018
yet other numbers are trying to tell us he is a savior. (Refer to above numbers)
The one conclusion that I have come up with is...the push polls are strong with these first two.
This country is weird.
Where the hell is Mueller?